Politica internationala in ritm de kazacioc

Eastern Europeans are rightly alarmed about the brazenness and success of the Russian blitzkrieg into Georgia. For many living in Russia’s shadow, this is reviving traumatic memories - of 1968 for Czechs, 1956 for Hungarians, 1939 for Poles. It does not help that senior Russian generals are threatening to rain nuclear annihilation on Ukraine and Poland if they refuse to toe the Kremlin’s line. Even those states which, unlike Georgia and Ukraine, are already in NATO can take scant comfort. As Poland’s foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, says, “Parchments and treaties are all very well, but we have a history in Poland of fighting alone and being left to our own devices by our allies.” The only thing that the frontline states can count on is their own willingness to fight for independence. But willingness alone is not enough. They also need the means to fight, and at the moment they don’t have them. (Max Boot, istoric militar pentru New York Times, azi)

Sa vedem acum ce zice, pe aceeasi tema, Mihail Gorbaciov, ultimul presedinte URSS, tatucul perestroicii si artizanul transformarii Rusiei intr-un stat cit de cit… modern (ma rog). 

Russia did not want this crisis. The Russian leadership is in a strong enough position domestically; it did not need “a little victorious war.” Russia was dragged into the fray by the recklessness of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili. He would not have dared to attack without outside support. Russia could not afford inaction. It is still not quite clear whether the West was aware of Saakashvili’s plans, and this is a serious matter. What is clear is that the Western assistance in training Georgian troops and massive shipments of arms had been pushing the region toward war rather than peace. There is much talk now in the United States about “reconsidering” relations with Russia. I suggest one thing that should definitely be reconsidered: the habit of talking to Russia in a condescending way, without regard for its positions and interests.

Zilele trecute auzeam la radio smiorcaielile inutile a diversi oficiali americani care se plingeau ca Rusia nu respecta de facto nici macar acum Tratatul de Pace semnat in urma cu 2 saptamini. In fond, de ce sa-l respecte? Dupa dezagregarea URSS, in imaginarul colectiv din Europa Occidentala si America si-a facut loc un nou personaj: fata de larg consum (pe sume modice) din Rusia. Sa ajungi sa-l tratezi pe Putin ca pe un porn teen mi se pare, totusi, o greseala tactica ingrozitoare. Mai ales cind ai pe constiinta doua importuri de democratie total esuate - in Irak si Afgahnistan, care te-au cam sleit de putirintza (militara si financiara). Prin urmare, tatuca Gorbaciov, care prin pozitia adoptata mai sus demonstreaza inca odata proverbul cu lupul, blana si naravul, chiar are dreptate: nu doar americanii, ci cu totii ar trebui sa fim mult mai precauti in relatia cu Rusia.

Amintiti-va si de pozitia transanta (si inexplicabil de putin analizata la momentul respectiv) pe care Putin a avut-o in cadrul summit-ului NATO de la Bucuresti. Grosso modo, (pe atunci… si pe acum) presedintele URSS Rusiei, Putin a fost diplomat si a dat bine in poze, cind zimbea la cina alaturi de Condoleezza. Cu toatea astea, in discursul sau, vizavi de extinderea NATO si posibilitatea absortiei Georgiei, la un momentdat a rostit textual: “Ma baieti, voi ce credeti ca faceti aici?” 

Ce inseamna lectia Georgiei pentru Estul Europei? Exact ce spune domnul Boot (care, by the way, in ciuda numelui, este rus). Daca Rusia si-ar incorda un pic muschii, Europa de Est ar fi ramine in fundul gol. Exact cum s-a intimplat si in urma cu 60 de ani, la sfirsitul celui de-al doilea Razboi Mondial.  

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